0-1 and 0-100% Scale and Statements of Likelihood

Understanding 0-1 Scale and Statements of Likelihood

The probability scale spans from 0 to 1, where 0 denotes an impossible event, and 1 signifies a certain event.
Therefore, 0 is the minimum value (impossible event) and 1 is the maximum value (certain event) in a probability distribution.
The value 0.5 on the probability scale typically signifies an event that is equally likely to happen as not to happen.
If a probability event’s value is greater than 0.5, the event is more likely to happen than not, and if it’s less than 0.5, it’s less likely to happen.

Adapting to the 0-100% Scale

Understanding that probability can also be expressed as a percentage is crucial.
The probability of an event happening can be anywhere from 0% (no chance) to 100% (guaranteed).
One can convert between probabilities and percentages by multiplying by 100. Therefore, for example, a probability of 0.75 is equivalent to 75%.

Interpreting Statements of Likelihood

Statements of likelihood provide a narrative or descriptive way to express probability.
For example, events described as “very unlikely” generally have very low probability values, while “very likely” events have high probability values.
Even vaguer terms such as “likely”, “unlikely”, “possible”, and “impossible” refer to the probability associated with the likelihood of an event occurring.

From Probability to Prediction

Given a probability for an event, one can make predictions about the expected outcomes over multiple trials.
The larger the number of trials, the more the results tend to converge toward the predicted outcomes.
Therefore, understanding the 0-1 and 0-100% scales and interpreting likelihood statements are vital for making accurate predictions.